Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 35,775
2 Florida 32,652
3 Mississippi 32,608
4 Alabama 31,200
5 Arizona 29,883
6 South Carolina 28,444
7 Georgia 28,157
8 Tennessee 27,966
9 Iowa 27,655
10 North Dakota 27,538
11 Arkansas 27,188
12 Texas 26,682
13 Nevada 25,749
14 South Dakota 24,572
15 New York 23,706
16 New Jersey 23,180
17 Idaho 23,158
18 Illinois 23,135
19 Rhode Island 23,055
20 Nebraska 23,044
21 Utah 22,284
22 District of Columbia 21,628
23 Oklahoma 21,530
24 Wisconsin 21,351
25 Delaware 20,938
26 Missouri 20,759
27 California 20,621
28 Maryland 20,571
29 Kansas 20,513
30 North Carolina 19,879
31 Massachusetts 19,016
32 Indiana 17,911
33 Minnesota 17,322
34 Virginia 17,174
35 Connecticut 16,028
36 Kentucky 15,892
37 Puerto Rico 14,848
38 New Mexico 13,823
39 Michigan 13,596
40 Ohio 12,986
41 Pennsylvania 12,626
42 Colorado 12,149
43 Washington 11,897
44 Montana 11,731
45 Alaska 11,587
46 Wyoming 9,941
47 Hawaii 8,723
48 West Virginia 8,655
49 Oregon 7,822
50 New Hampshire 6,036
51 Maine 3,942
52 Vermont 2,796

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 480
2 South Dakota 446
3 Wisconsin 398
4 Utah 302
5 Montana 275
6 Puerto Rico 262
7 Nebraska 244
8 Iowa 235
9 Arkansas 232
10 Missouri 230
11 Oklahoma 225
12 Kansas 223
13 Idaho 215
14 Tennessee 206
15 Minnesota 203
16 Wyoming 192
17 South Carolina 165
18 Alabama 158
19 Alaska 156
20 Illinois 152
21 Nevada 149
22 Indiana 144
23 Kentucky 138
24 Texas 138
25 North Carolina 122
26 Mississippi 113
27 Delaware 104
28 West Virginia 103
29 Georgia 90
30 Colorado 84
31 Florida 84
32 Virginia 84
33 Louisiana 83
34 Maryland 83
35 Ohio 82
36 New Mexico 79
37 Michigan 78
38 California 76
39 Massachusetts 76
40 Rhode Island 76
41 New Jersey 75
42 Hawaii 73
43 Pennsylvania 67
44 Washington 63
45 Arizona 52
46 Connecticut 52
47 Oregon 52
48 District of Columbia 47
49 New York 46
50 New Hampshire 30
51 Maine 16
52 Vermont 7

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,813
2 New York 1,682
3 Massachusetts 1,365
4 Connecticut 1,263
5 Louisiana 1,178
6 Rhode Island 1,047
7 Mississippi 981
8 District of Columbia 884
9 Arizona 772
10 Michigan 706
11 Illinois 700
12 Florida 653
13 Delaware 651
14 Maryland 651
15 South Carolina 648
16 Georgia 640
17 Pennsylvania 639
18 Texas 548
19 Indiana 533
20 Nevada 514
21 Alabama 510
22 Arkansas 440
23 Iowa 419
24 New Mexico 416
25 Ohio 406
26 California 395
27 Virginia 371
28 Minnesota 366
29 Colorado 356
30 Missouri 345
31 Tennessee 345
32 North Carolina 330
33 New Hampshire 322
34 North Dakota 310
35 Washington 288
36 Kentucky 267
37 Idaho 257
38 Oklahoma 254
39 Nebraska 251
40 South Dakota 246
41 Wisconsin 222
42 Kansas 220
43 Puerto Rico 202
44 West Virginia 188
45 Montana 162
46 Utah 141
47 Oregon 130
48 Maine 104
49 Hawaii 92
50 Vermont 92
51 Wyoming 86
52 Alaska 71

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Arkansas 6
2 North Dakota 6
3 Mississippi 3
4 Texas 3
5 Georgia 2
6 Louisiana 2
7 Massachusetts 2
8 Missouri 2
9 South Carolina 2
10 Alaska 1
11 Arizona 1
12 Delaware 1
13 Florida 1
14 Hawaii 1
15 Illinois 1
16 Indiana 1
17 Iowa 1
18 Kentucky 1
19 Maryland 1
20 Minnesota 1
21 Montana 1
22 Nevada 1
23 New Mexico 1
24 North Carolina 1
25 Oklahoma 1
26 Puerto Rico 1
27 Tennessee 1
28 Virginia 1
29 West Virginia 1
30 Alabama 0
31 California 0
32 Colorado 0
33 Connecticut 0
34 District of Columbia 0
35 Idaho 0
36 Kansas 0
37 Maine 0
38 Michigan 0
39 Nebraska 0
40 New Hampshire 0
41 New Jersey 0
42 New York 0
43 Ohio 0
44 Oregon 0
45 Pennsylvania 0
46 Rhode Island 0
47 South Dakota 0
48 Utah 0
49 Vermont 0
50 Washington 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Lincoln Arkansas 155,022 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 149,812 2 99
Trousdale Tennessee 147,820 3 99
Lafayette Florida 146,402 4 99
Lake Tennessee 131,842 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 41,556 195 93
Richland South Carolina 36,896 266 91
York South Carolina 19,176 1172 62
Orange California 17,291 1352 56
Pierce Washington 9,785 2215 29

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 4,966 1 99
Kenedy Texas 4,950 2 99
Emporia city Virginia 4,863 3 99
Galax city Virginia 4,727 4 99
Randolph Georgia 4,279 5 99
Richland South Carolina 587 685 78
Davidson Tennessee 442 975 68
Orange California 383 1114 64
York South Carolina 267 1447 53
Pierce Washington 246 1508 52

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons